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In Case You Missed It....like I did

I didn't see the recap from Mark Richt and Mark Fox's visit to the Macon Bulldog club yesterday morning. David Hale wrote a couple of detailed recaps. The piece in the Macon Telegraph focused on the basketball team, and the article on his blog covered both coaches.

One thing I found interesting about the articles was Coach Fox's comment that he's having more trouble this year than last year building a schedule because teams know we're going to be tougher.

I know Miami Hurricane's coach Frank Haith said a few weeks ago that he was trying to book UGA, Auburn or South Carolina for a home and home series. I also know Nevada, Colorado and Southern Cal are schools with quite a bit of scheduling flexibility that are looking for games.

The 2010-2011 hoops schedule should be pretty intriguing. So far, we only know about GT (Away), Saint Louis (Away), UAB (home) and the three games in Orlando for Thanksgiving.

PWD

You know what to do

This one is pretty straightforward.

PWD

Colorado Buffalo Season Tickets on Sale

Image: Hipple
When more than 15,000 Georgia fans descended on the desert for the UGA vs. Arizona State game, the attendance was fueled by a convergence of factors including:

• $99 season ticket packages located directly adjacent to the visitors section
  
• A large stadium by non-SEC standards with more than 71,000 seats that almost never experiences a sellout
  
• Unprecedented optimism leading into the 2008 football season.
  
• The first big road game outside of the Southeast in 40+ years.
  
• Amazing tourism opportunities nearby

The dynamics of the 2010 Georgia vs. Colorado game are wildly different. However, we could still end up bringing a massive crowd to Boulder. With that in mind, I did want to let you know that season tickets for the 2010 Buffaloes season are on sale now from CU's Athletic Department. Here are the caveats you should know:

• The cheapest season ticket is $235. The seats available at that price point are located in the yellow sections on this map. Click on the section to get a view from those seats. They aren't bad seats because the stadium is so small, but they aren't very good seats for that price point. Especially, not when you can get tickets on Stubhub in Section 2 for $100 or so as of the time of this posting. View from Section 2.
  
  
• Enthusiasm for Colorado football is incredibly low, and they are hosting a truly pathetic home schedule. The best game on the docket is UGA. The second best game is Texas Tech. Your ability to unload your unused CU season tickets will be incredibly limited. Unlike the ASU season tickets two years ago where you could dump the UCLA and Oregon tickets and get some of your cash back.
  
  
• I researched last year's stubhub.com fees for CU home games. You could get dramatically better seats than what is marked in yellow on that map for less than $235 each.
  
  
• Individual game tickets go on sale roughly August 2nd. Last year, they didn't sell out the Nebraska home game in advance, and they were much more optimistic about the 2009 season than the 2010 season.
  
  
• Folsom Field only seats 53,000 people. That's smaller than Bobby Dodd Stadium. So if UGA brings 10k or more, there will be some interesting demand for tickets in the aftermarket.

Bottom line...do what you want. But I'll either buy them from the CU athletic department in August or I'll buy 'em off Stubhub.


Obviously, I have a referral relationship with Stubhub. So, I'm hardly unbiased. But I will definitely still post the link to buy single game tickets to their games when they go on sale directly from CU. I want as many Dawg fans as possible there one way or the other.

PWD

Georgia vs. Florida Travel Deal

As a heads up, you can book a flight to Jacksonville from Atlanta round trip departing ATL on Thursday or Friday and returning on Sunday for as little as $128 plus taxes and fees. That's not $128 each way...that's total.

Car Rentals on Hotwire are as little as $28/day. Just something to consider if you hate that drive as much as I do.

PWD

(Not a paid advertisement, but I wish it was)

Light at the End of the Tunnel?

...and it's not an on coming train. The Georgia Basketball team made Andy Katz's preseason Top 25. We debut at #25. This comes on the heels of Marcus Thornton's visit over the weekend.

When you look at the NBA early draft entrants across the SEC as well as the senior departures, it looks like 10 wins for Georgia is very possible. Arkansas, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt and Kentucky all took massive personnel hits while Georgia returns almost everyone and adds Williams and Brantley who could both make a meaningful impact on the team.

Marcus Thornton's four finalists for his signature are UGA, GT, Alabama and Texas. It's worth noting that only Georgia is ranked among those four teams heading into next year.

This is the most optimistic about basketball that I've been in 8 years.

PWD

Why the 16 Team Mega Conferences won't happen Part 2

Simply put, I don't believe the Big 10 can make the TV revenue numbers work. To grossly oversimplify the math, the Big 10 members currently pull in $22 million each. That's $242 million total. To move to 16 teams and keep the per team revenue the same, you'd need to increase the total size of the pie to $352 million.

You would think that risk adverse university presidents wouldn't make a move that risky without thinking they could increase their yearly revenue share by at least 20 percent. That requires increasing the Big 10's total revenue to over $422 million.

That's a 75 percent increase in total revenue for the Big 10 simply by adding teams like Pitt, Syracuse, Missouri, Rutgers and UConn. Why not mention Notre Dame? Because if they could get Notre Dame, they wouldn't keep adding teams.

TV Revenue is based on eyeballs. Let's look at some numbers.

• Currently there are about 303 million people in the US.
  
• The Big 10 state by state footprint includes 67 million people. That's 22% of the nation's population.
  
• Adding Missouri, UConn, Pitt, Syracuse and Rutgers would increase their coverage by 37.5 million homes. Or about 56 percent.

Why are those numbers important? Well...I posted population...not number of households but the above percentages still give you an idea of the size of the footprint a 16 team league would get you. And again...there is no need to take on the risk of going to 16 teams if Notre Dame wants to be the 12th. In that case, you just stop at 12.

But I digress. About 3 weeks ago, Dennis Dodd pointed out this math:

Cable television analyst Mike Reynolds of Multichannel News estimated that the Big Ten is getting a subscription fee of 70 cents per month per subscriber within that eight-state Big Ten region. Outside of that area, he says, the fee drops to 10 cents.

Take the state of Missouri as an example of the profit potential for the Big Ten. The state had an estimated 2.2 million households in 2008. Let's assume that almost all of those have satellite or cable or both. If the Big Ten added the University of Missouri, it could potentially increase those subscriber fees from 10 cents per person to 70 cents. That's the difference between a gross of $220,000 and $1.54 million per month.

*UPDATE: I blew the math big time. Here's the better math. Adding Missouri changes the Big 10 revenue opportunity to $15 million in the state of Missouri. However, they need to add $22 million for the league to break even. The math isn't terrible for the Big 10 in theory (unlike what I wrote in the 2 paragraphs I'm striking below). But it's not clear that residents of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey will put the same value on the Big 10 Network that residents of Michigan and Ohio do.

Ok. So, adding Missouri changes the Big 10 Network's revenue opportunity in Missouri by roughly $1.3 million? Again, I don't get it. Missouri needs to add $22 million to the Big Ten pie to pay for themselves. Why is adding $1.3 million in net new TV fees a good deal for the rest of the league's media partners?

To make the math work, you'd basically have to double the value of the TV deal in the *existing 8 states* to $1.40 per household *and* double the non-Big 10 states fees to $0.20 per household to get to numbers that make sense for expansion.

As point of comparison, the NFL Network charges Comcast $0.40-0.45 per household (update: per month) for viewers of the most important sport in the United States (as of 2009). That's down from the $0.70 asking price that the NFL Network put in front of Comcast.

Now...can you get the massive revenue needed if Notre Dame is one of the 16? Maybe. But like I said earlier. Why go to 16, if you get Notre Dame in the fold. You're in a less risky position to just stop at 12.

Like I said...I don't think the 16 team Super Conference is coming. Not right in the next 2 years anyway.

PWD

Why the 16 Team Mega Conferences won't happen Part 1

I just don't see the Big 10 expanding to 16 teams any time soon, and if they don't do it. No one will. In my opinion, most of their talk about 16 teams is aimed at:

• Making Notre Dame Nervous - The only way for a 16 team conference to really work would be moving to a 10 game league schedule. You really wouldn't play the other side of the league often enough to call yourself a conference unless you went to 10 games. Ten league games for the Big 10 would mean extremely little scheduling flexibility for Midwestern teams in booking Notre Dame. Also, a 16 team Big 10 would eliminate the Big East. Currently, Notre Dame is guaranteed 4 games a year against Big East foes. Combine that with three more Big 10 teams, and it becomes hard to see how they would book a full slate of 12 games. There are only so many service academies.
  
  
• Making Nebraska Nervous - If the Big 10 takes Missouri and the Pac 10 takes Colorado, the team left standing in the Big 12's game of musical chairs is Nebraska. Texas and Texas A&M can do pretty much anything they want due to TV demographics and fan support. Nebraska doesn't have that luxury.

In the end, I think the Big 10 will expand by 1 team and the Pac 10 will go to 12. And most of the 16 team talk is brilliantly aimed at getting the Big 10 the best possible team to reach out to them for inclusion.

From there, all the leagues will take a deep breath. Because the contractual complexities of moving to 16 teams in one or more conferences are just too great. And University presidents are too risk adverse.

More on the Revenue side in a little bit.

PWD

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